The industry uses salmonella prevalence as an indicator of food safety. An article published in Risk Analysis by T. Oscar from the USDA claims that prevalence is only one of several factors that determine the risk of salmonellosis. He created a predictive model for the risk of salmonellosis from individual lots of ground turkey as a function of Salmonella prevalence and other risk factors. Scenario analysis was used to evaluate the effects of model variables on the risk of salmonellosis. Epidemiological data were used to simulate Salmonella serotype virulence in a dose‐response model that was based on human outbreak and feeding trial data Risk of salmonellosis. AU (total arbitrary units per lot) was affected (p ≤ 0.05) by several factors including (Ii)Salmonella prevalence, (II) number of Salmonella, and virulence, (III) incidence and extent of undercooking, (IV) food consumption behavior (V) host resistance. However, it was not (p > 0.05) affected by serving size, serving size distribution, or the total bacterial load of ground turkey when all other risk factors were held constant. When other risk factors were not held constant, Salmonella prevalence was not correlated (r = −0.39; p = 0.21) with the risk of salmonellosis. Therefore, Salmonella prevalence alone was not a good indicator of poultry food safety. The author encourages the utilization of the process risk model developed in the present study, to better protect public health from foodborne pathogens like Salmonella.@ https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13563
